Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Wednesday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Wednesday's Best Bets

Brighton v Chelsea

We backed Chelsea over 3.5 goals on Saturday and were rewarded with a nice payout at 5/4. It's a bet we've been making for the past few games. They've seen over 3.5 in 13 of their last 15 Premier League games. Their attack has been more clinical in the last month, with 24 goals in seven games since the start of April. Chelsea have kept just two clean sheets in 18 away and conceded two or more in 12. Brighton created 1.87 xG in their last home game against Villa and have created over 1.40 xG in every home game that wasn't against Man City or Arsenal.

1 Point on Over 3.5 Goals Best price available at 21/20 with bet365

Atalanta v Juventus

Juve have been sleepwalking through the latter half of the season, having virtually guaranteed top four a while ago. Atalanta are in fine form and will play two cup finals within the space of eight days. Juventus' defensive away form against the top sides in Serie A has been really poor. They've conceded over 1.50 expected goals in six of nine away against the top nine. They only conceded 1.18 against Milan, who had a 40th-minute red card. Atalanta's defensive numbers are very similar, allowing over 1.50 xG in eight of their nine away games against the top half. Their only miss came at Bologna, where they allowed 1.10. The two meetings between these two sides ended 0-0 (2.55 xG) and 2-2 (2.88 xG). 

1 Point on Over 2.0 Goal Line Best price available at 1.78 with bet365

2.0 Goal Line means we need two goals for a refund, and three or more to win the bet.

Sevilla v Cadiz

There is a bit of a question mark around Sevilla's motivation with nothing to play for, so I'm reducing the stake size to a half point, but this is a value bet I have to make. Cadiz have been atrocious away from home, losing 11 of 17. If you look at their form against sides outside of the bottom six, it's 10 losses from 12, and they've failed to score in nine of 12. Unsurprisingly, they are the second-worst side in La Liga regarding net xG away from home, with -1.06 goals per game worse than the average side. Sevilla have been the fifth-best side in La Liga over the last eight games on Net XG.

0.5 Points on Sevilla Win Best price available at 11/10 with bet365

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