Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Saturday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF8:00 AM 18 MAY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Saturday's Best Bets

Union Berlin v Freiburg

Union Berlin need a win to avoid relegation and I think that has been overpriced into the market. It will be Christian Streich's final game as manager for Freiburg and he will depart after 29 years at the club. Freiburg still have a shot at the European places given Hoffenheim have Bayern at home. Union Berlin have lost all seven home games against the top seven and are winless against the top half. Freiburg haven't lost home or away against a bottom six club all season and have won five of six away.

1 Point on Freiburg +0.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 17/20 with bet365

Torino v AC Milan

Milan have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games recently with nothing to play for. They've seen three or more goals in seven of their last eight and four or more in four. Torino may be in a bit of a scoring drought at home but they've created 7.38 expected goals in their last six games and found the net just once. They are creating chances and should be able to find the net against a Milan side that have kept just five clean sheets in 18 away games.

1 Point on Over 2.25 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 21/20 with bet365

Half of our stake is on over 2.0 goal line, meaning two goals is a refund and three or more goals is a win. The other half is on over 2.5 goal line, meaning we need three or more to win.

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