Dutch look value to be less broken than Brazil
Poor Brazil. Bow out on penalties to the Germans and you’d probably say they’d had a good tournament. But 7-1? Now that’s embarrassing.
Big Phil Scolari called the semi-final the worst of day of his life (he’s clearly never had a good thing mugged on the line), and international careers could be finished after a landscape-changing annihilation. Their defence was kamikaze, their midfield was hopelessly overrun, while their attack resembled a bunch of misfits plucked from the crowd.
The natural response would be for the players to go into hiding until the domestic season, but instead they must head to the national capital Brasilia to play Holland, where they're on a hiding to nothing (which was almost the score in their semi-final).
Team selection will be a point of interest - will Scolari stick to his vanquished favourites, or delve deeper into the reserves of his squad? Perhaps the less-than-prolific Jo, once signed by Mark Hughes for £19m, is deserving of a run-out, or maybe Willian, who was put on with instructions to change the game at 6-0 down on Tuesday, will get his chance from the start.
Forgive me for stating the obvious, but this Brazil team really aren't that good. Which makes me surprised that they're the favourites, even with their skipper Thiago Silva back from suspension.
I’m doubtful that Louis van Gaal is over-excited about the prospect of finishing third either - he has bigger fish to fry with Manchester United's pre-season tour on the horizon - but the Dutch are probably dreading this match slightly less than the Brazilians.
So, if you're going to bet on a third-place play-off, the big prices about Holland beating a shell-shocked Brazil are just too tempting.