Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Friday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Friday's Best Bets

Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners

Although Central Coast finished top of the regular season, our xG model has Sydney FC as the best team in the league. They comfortably beat Central Coast 2-0 back in March and destroyed them on xG 2.52-0.36. Sydney have created over 2.00 expected goals in 11 of 13 home games if you discount games where they had a red card. According to Net xG, Sydney have been the best side in the A-League over the past 12 games. Taking Sydney to win at over even money looks like good value.

0.5 Points on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 21/20 with bet365

MVV Maastricht v VVV Venlo

MVV need to win to give themselves a chance at a possible playoff promotion spot, and VVV have nothing to play for. Maastricht have been involved in many high-scoring games against similar opposition to VVV at home - 3-0, 3-3, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0, and 2-1 with a red card. VVV have been good away from home in these spots, mainly due to their defence. Their defensive work rate won't be as high with nothing to play for, but they should still be a threat going forward. The first leg ended 3-1 to MVV with 2.91 xG.

0.5 Points on Over 3 Goal Line Best price available at 8/11 with bet365

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If you had bet Bet Builder selections to £20 a point this season, you'd have made +£256.80 in profit—and we only started in February!

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