Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Sunday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF8:12 AM 12 MAY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Sunday's Best Bets

Man United v Arsenal

Manchester United may have been comfortably beaten by Palace midweek, but they've been poor away from home all season. They've only suffered one defeat at home against the top eight and have beaten Villa and Chelsea. Their only defeat came against Man City, and they recently drew 2-2 with Liverpool. The Gunners have just one win away from home against the top eight, suffering two losses and three draws in the other matches. They've kept just one clean sheet in those matches, and United have scored two in four of five against the top eight at Old Trafford.

1 Point on Man United +1.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 19/20 with bet365

Norwich v Leeds

Leeds have won three of nine away against the top half in the Championship, but when you dig into the underlying metrics, they lost the expected goals battle in three, which includes their 3-2 win over the Canaries. Norwich have lost two other home games against the top half, but they came without Josh Sargent. They are unbeaten in 84% of games where he starts, and without him, they've lost 48%. Leeds have also stumbled in high-pressure situations in the run-in, with losses away at QPR and Coventry and home to Blackburn.

0.5 Points on Norwich +0.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 4/6 with bet365

Cadiz v Getafe

Cadiz fighting for relegation and needing points to stay up has been over priced in the market. Getafe are unbeaten away from home against sides in the bottom six. Cadiz have won just once in their home games against sides in the bottom eight, so why are they favoured over a mid-table side? Getafe have individual quality in their side and can avoid defeat.

1 Point on Getafe +0.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 4/6 with bet365

Verona v Torino

Torino are comfortably mid-table and winless in their last five. They've already lost away at Empoli, who are battling relegation like Verona. The home side have good wins over Fiorentina and Udinese in their last two home games and see this as another good spot to pick up points in their fight for survival. These two sides have been pretty even over the past six games on net xG, so when you factor in the added motivation and home advantage 11/10 for Draw No Bet looks like a solid value bet.

1 Point on Verona Draw No Bet Best price available at 11/10 with bet365

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