Sunderland v Newcastle

Things aren't good for The Toon Army right now, and there is some unrest behind the scenes. On the pitch, Newcastle have lost seven of their last eight games in all competitions, which includes games against Luton, Forest, and Everton. They have lost five in a row away from St. James' Park and have just two wins in their 15 away games this season. They've conceded in 12 and two or more in eight away games, which means they will likely need to score twice to get the win. Newcastle have failed to win each of their last five third round first leg matches, being knocked out in three. Sunderland will see this as a perfect spot to get one over on their arch-rivals. The Black Cats have had some impressive wins at home this season, with victories over Leeds, Southampton, and West Brom. The Soccerbase Model Ratings have them as the sixth-best team in the Championship this season. They've won the expected goals battle in 11 of 13 home games, and one of the losses came against Boro, where they had a first-half red card. They've created over 1.25 expected goals in every home game where they've had 11 players on the pitch but have also conceded under 1.00 expected goals in just three home games, so we should be in for an entertaining Tyne-Wear derby.

AFC Wimbledon v Ipswich

Ipswich had been flying until recently and are now winless in five. They haven't scored in three of their last four and have centre-forward George Hirst on the sidelines with a significant injury. This is a sleepy spot against a League Two side, who they will expect to beat. Wimbledon have scored four or more in three of their last four home games and will be hopeful of pulling the upset. Seven of the 15 teams that were upset over the past two seasons were in the Championship, and three were caused by League Two sides.

Stoke v Brighton

The Potters have been a top-six side over the past six games in the Championship. This is a great spot to take on De Zerbi's side after a pile-up of fixtures over Christmas. We saw them demolish Tottenham 4-2 after an eight-day break. The high, intense, pressing way they want to play works best when they are fresh. We've seen them throw in poor performances throughout the season following midweek European games. They've drawn against Burnley, Sheffield United, and Fulham at home, were dreadful against Arsenal and were flat as a pancake against West Ham last time out. They have many injuries and are a perfect fade candidate on Saturday afternoon.

Sheffield Wednesday v Cardiff

This game finished 2-1 to Cardiff just two days before Christmas. We saw the same scoreline when these two sides met in August. Cardiff's manager, Erol Bulut, won't be on the sidelines for this game due to an illness, so this is a bit of an emotional spot for The Bluebirds. It's worth taking a chance on them to make it a hat-trick of wins over The Owls at a big price.

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa

It's surprising to see Boro as such a big home underdog. Aston Villa have lost in the FA Cup third round seven times in a row. They were knocked out by League Two Stevenage last year, who won 2-1 at Villa Park. Aston Villa have been fantastic this season at Villa Park, but their away record of four wins, two draws, and four losses isn't as impressive. Boro have had impressive home wins over league leaders Leicester, third-place Southampton, and fifth-place West Brom.

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