Brentford have scored in all eight games since Toney's return, but they've lost five. They've lost all seven away games against sides inside the top nine of the Premier League and have seen over 2.5 in five. Their defence has been the main problem. They conceded 2.92 xG at City, 2.82 at Tottenham, 1.80 at Liverpool and over 2.00 at Brighton and Chelsea. Pinnock, Dasilva, Henry, Hickey, and Mee are all injured from their back line. Travelling to face an Arsenal side that's won seven in a row and scored six, four, five, and six in their last four Premier League games isn't what the Bees want. Arsenal will have too much going forward to Brentford, even if Saka and Martinelli don't play. The Gunners have won all 12 games home and away against the bottom eight and have seen over 2.5 land in nine.

Both sides average over 2.75 expected goals per match, mainly due to their defensive struggles. They both allow over 1.50 xG against per game. Sass have conceded two or more in eight of 13 at home, and Fros have conceded two or more in ten of thirteen away. The first meeting ended in a 4-2 Frosinone win with 3.26 expected goals. 

Bologna's defensive record has been very impressive this season at home with nine clean sheets in 14 but to have such a low goal line against this  historically good Inter team isn't right. Inter have scored two or more themselves away from home in nine of thirteen. The first leg ended 2-2 in a game with 2.86 expected goals. Bologna have only played one other top four club and they conceded two to Milan in a game with 3.23 xG.