Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Saturday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF2:32 PM 09 MAY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Saturday's Best Bets

Fulham v Manchester City

Is this a market overreaction to Fulham flying kites in training? City have beaten three teams away from home by three or more goals this season - Man United, Burnley, and Brighton. Fulham have lost just once at home by three or more, which oddly came against Brentford. They actually beat Arsenal and Spurs at home, and the scoreline of 5-1 flattered Man City in the first meeting. Fulham's attack can help them to cover this handicap, which will be playing with freedom in their last home game of the season.

0.5 Points on Fulham +2 Asian Handicap Best price available at 17/20 with bet365

0.5 Points on Both Teams To Score Best price available at 3/4 with bet365

Wolves v Crystal Palace

When Olise and Eze started this season, the scorelines were 4-0, 5-2, 0-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, and 2-1. Palace have five wins and two losses in those games. The market isn't factoring in how much of a difference these two make to the Palace attack. Wolves also have Hwang back up front and a couple of defensive injuries. This is also a complete dead rubber with plenty of attacking quality on show.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 3/4 with bet365

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea

Chelsea have seen over 3.5 in 12 of their last 14 Premier League games. Their attack has been more clinical in the last month, with 21 goals in seven games since the start of April. Forest are fighting relegation and have a good attacking front four capable of scoring. They've scored in 11 of 12 home games against teams outside of the top six and have scored two or more in eight. Chelsea have kept just two clean sheets in 17 away and conceded two or more in 11.

1 Point on Over 3.5 Goals Best price available at 5/4 with bet365

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West Ham v Luton

It feels like West Ham have completely given up on the season, knowing David Moyes won't be around and knocked out of Europe. They've won one of their last nine and will face a Luton side fighting for their lives at the bottom of the league. The Hatters have actually been good in this spot, with just one loss away from home against the bottom seven. West Ham have overperformed their xG all season and are a bottom six club according to our Net xG ratings.

0.5 Luton +0.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 21/20 with bet365

Everton v Sheffield United

This is a complete dead rubber with the Blades relegated and Everton's safety secured. This is a huge handicap for Everton to cover in a regular game, but they aren't the sort of side with the attacking quality or tactical game plan to win games by a margin. They've won five games at home by more than two goals but only won two games by over 1.00 xG. The Blades have only lost two of 8 away games by two goals or more. Dyche has also said, "There might be a few changes... if we feel it's right".

0.5 Sheffield United +1.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 17/20 with bet365

AC Milan v Cagliari

We've been backing goals in Cagliari games for the last month while they fight relegation. They've already scored against Atalanta and twice against Juventus and Inter over the past six games. Cag will be confident they can score against a Milan side with nothing to play for that has conceded three at home to Genoa and away at Sassuolo over their last four.

1 Point on Over 3 Goal Line Best price available at 20/21 with bet365

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