Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Thursday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Thursday's Best Bets

Cagliari v Fiorentina

Cagliari are safe from relegation heading into this match and will face Fiorentina, who are looking to secure European football. They can, of course, win the Europa Conference League final and guarantee Europe. Atalanta won the Europa League last night, which means Serie A may get nine European spots anyway, so this turns into a bit of a friendly against a side that is already safe. Cag have scored at home in 15 of their 18 home games and Fio have conceded in 13 of 17 away. The first meeting ended 3-0 to Fiorentina, and there were 3.00 expected goals.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 7/10 with bet365

FC Utrecht v Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam won this exact fixture 2-1 just ten days ago. The underlying expected goal metrics were 0.25 in favour of the home side, so Utrecht are worth taking on at these odds. Utrecht won the first meeting 1-0, but Sparta dominated the expected goal battle - 1.85-0.89. Sparta have lost just two of twelve away games against sides outside the Eredivisie's top five. Utrecht have won just three of their home games by more than two goals. These two sides also met in the Europa Conference playoff last season, ending 1-1.

1 Point on Sparta Rotterdam +1 Asian Handicap Best price available at 4/6 with bet365

If Sparta win or draw, we win our bet. If they lose by one goal we get a refund and if they lose by two or more we'll lose the bet.

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If you had bet Bet Builder selections to £20 a point this season, you'd have made +£256.80 in profit—and we only started in February!

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For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.


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