Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Thursday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Thursday's Best Bets

Atalanta v Marseille

Marseille have conceded two or more in five away games on the bounce.They've seen over 2.5 land in 11 of 14 overall and five of six away under Jean-Louis Gassett. Atalanta are more aggressive at home. They've kept just one clean sheet in six against the top half in Serie A and seen over 2.5 land in five. They conceded in both European home games against Sporting and Liverpool. Atalanta created 1.05 xG away in the first leg.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 1.87 with bet365

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