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Monday's Free Football Betting Tips: Back the Hammers to sting the Bees in this 5/1 treble!

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues. 

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Roma v Torino

Torino's have drastic home/away splits. They have been a solid top eight side at home in Serie A but have lost five of twelve away. They've also struggled when stepping up in class, losing seven of ten against sides in the top half. They have a -0.81 net expected goal rate per 90 away against sides in the top six. They do remain unbeaten against teams in the bottom half in fifteen games. Roma have won four of five in Serie A since De Rossi took over, scoring 12 goals in the process. They dispatched Cagliari 4-0 and Verona 2-1; both games had impressive underlying numbers, with them being the better side by over 1.00 expected goals. 

Girona v Rayo Vallecano

Girona have scored 30 goals in their 12 home games. They average 2.04 expected goals alone and average 3.06 expected goals per game. In their first meeting with Vallecano, they created 2.53 xG away from home in a game that ended 2-1 with 3.95 xG. They also beat them 3-1 at home in the Copa Del Rey quarter-finals. Vallecano have a very poor over 2.5 record overall, but they have seen it land in two out of three away at the top six sides, and Girona's style makes them a unique side.

West Ham v Brentford

Brentford have lost eight of their twelve away games this season and conceded 1.79 expected goals per game. They've lost four of six since Toney returned. Although they won two against Forest and Wolves, their underlying numbers cause concern. They lost the expected goals battle in both games and conceded over 1.50 xG in both. West Ham will welcome back Lucas Paqueta, which is a big boost for the Hammers attack, whether from the start or off the bench. West Ham have lost just three of twelve at home and are unbeaten against sides in the bottom half if you don't include Everton. West Ham have a -0.24 net xG in games where drawing, Brentford -0.30. Factor home advantage in, and there is value on the Hammers.

5/1 Treble

West Ham Draw No Bet v Brentford

Roma to beat Torino

Over 2.5 Goals - Girona v Rayo Vallecano

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