Premier League Early Bird Tip: Expect more fireworks at The Amex

Welcome to the Early Bird tip for Premier League gameweek four. This is the first article, so I will explain briefly the Early Bird's aim.

This column aims to identify value early in the week when bookmakers first release their odds. We can then place bets before the prices move, so come kick-off on the weekend, we have much better odds on our selection than it will be on game day.

Brighton vs Newcastle

Brighton saw a lot of late money on over 3 goal line against West Ham on Saturday evening and I'm expecting the same against Newcastle. Brighton's games this season have been 4-1, 4-1, and 1-3. They are top of the expected goals created table and third in most expected goals allowed. Newcastle's Sven Botman limped off injured against Liverpool and Dan Burn's lack of pace was highlighted as Nunez slotted home for a dramatic comeback. Jamaal Lascelles is also under an internal investigation following a nightclub brawl, so you could have a defensive back four of Trippier, Burn, Schar and Matt Targett against one of the league's best attacks.

Selection: Over 3 Goal Line at 4/5