Fulham have created over 1.00 expected goals per game at an average of 1.80. They even created 1.47 against Arsenal back in December in a 2-1 win. Villa have been hit with another couple of defensive injuries, with Carlos and Kamara looking like they'll be on the sidelines for a while. Villa will concede against a good Fulham attack but will have success of their own going forward. Fulham allowed over 1.25 expected goals to each of Bournemouth, Everton, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Brentford. It's only the sides in the bottom six they've had defensive success against.

Newcastle v Bournemouth

Newcastle are allowing 2.37 expected goals per game over their last six games. Their games have averaged 5.33 goals per game over their last six, and they conceded four to Luton in the previous match at St James' Park. Bournemouth's attack away from home this season has been fantastic. If you remove the first five games where they were getting used to Iraola's system, they are averaging 1.76 expected goals per away game and have scored in all seven.

Tottenham v Wolves

According to my expected goals model, Tottenham's home games average 3.64 expected goals per game, and Wolves average 2.93 away. Both sides are way over 3.00 in their last six at 3.41 and 3.24. Spurs have injuries to both Porro and Udogie at wingback, which isn't what you want facing Pedro Neto out wide. Spurs will play the same way and create chances, but Wolves could also cause them problems.

Huddersfield v Hull

Huddersfield have created over 1.00 expected goals in 12 out of 16 home games. They've scored in seven straight and created over 1.00 xG in each game too. Hull have allowed over 1.00 expected goals in 14 of their 15 away games. If you remove their game against Sheffield Wednesday, where they had an early red card, they've averaged 1.46 expected goals in seven games away from home against sides inside the bottom eight. They'e scored in six of seven and found the back of the net twice in six.

Manchester City v Chelsea

The first meeting between these two sides ended in a 4-4 draw at Stamford Bridge in a game with 4.21 expected goals. Manchester City played away in Europe midweek and suffered more injuries to Gvardiol, Silva, and Grealish. Guardiola has often used Silva and Grealish in big games where he wants more control of possession. We should see Doku, Foden, Alvarez, and Haaland as a front four, which doesn't give defensive stability. Chelsea have also scored away at Manchester United, Tottenham, and Newcastle. Chelsea have seen both teams to score and over 2.5 land in all five away games against the top eight and over 3.5 land in four. View full preview of this game here!

15/1 Accumulator

Over 2.5 Goals - Fulham v Aston Villa

Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals - Newcastle v Bournemouth

Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals - Tottenham v Wolves

Both Teams To Score - Huddersfield v Hull

Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals - Manchester City v Chelsea

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