Football accumulator tips for Saturday: Back entertaining game at Craven Cottage in this this 14/1 goals acca!

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF9:10 AM 16 MAR 2024

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues.

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Luton v Nottingham Forest

Luton have seen over 2.5 land in seven of their last eight, over 3.5 in six, and over 4.5 in four. They've seen three or more goals in 71% of their matches this season and rank 10th in goals scored but 18th in goals against. Forest have seen over 2.5 land in seven of Nuno's eleven games in charge. They've failed to score in their last two against Brighton and Liverpool but will have a much easier task here facing a Hatter's defence that ranks 19th in xG allowed.

Fulham v Tottenham

Fulham have been impressive at Craven Cottage this season with eight wins from 14, including wins over Arsenal, Brighton, and a 5-0 thumping of West Ham. Over 2.5 goals have been scored in five of their six matches against teams in the top half, and they have seen an average of 2.98 expected goals in those matches. Tottenham have seen over 3.5 land in five of six away at teams outside of the bottom eight. Their away games have averaged 3.85 goals and 3.04 expected goals.

Ipswich v Sheffield Wednesday

Ipswich have scored three or more in 10 of 18 home games. If you isolate sides in the bottom half of the Championship, they've scored three or more in seven of nine. While Sheffield Wednesday are massively improved under Danny Rohl, they've still conceded four at Huddersfield and Southampton and three at Norwich and Plymouth. The Tractor Boys have seen over 2.5 in nine of their last ten and five straight at home.

Plymouth v Preston

I don't think any Plymouth home game should be odds against for over 2.5. Argyle have scored three or more themselves in nine of eighteen, and they've conceded two or more in seven of nine at home to sides in the top half of the Championship. The first meeting finished 2-1 to Preston with 2.52 expected goals, which is where I think this line should be.

Frosinone v Lazio

Frosinone have been underrated all season at home. They've scored in 12 out of 14, including five of six against the top eight, with two against Milan and Atalanta. The issue for them has been keeping the ball out of their own net, with two or more conceded in five of seven against teams in the top half. Their home games have averaged 3.28 goals and 2.54 expected goals. Lazio have kept just three clean sheets in 14 away and have averaged 1.40 expected goals against away from home, which is 12th in Serie A.