Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Thursday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Thursday's Best Bets

Lille v Aston Villa

Villa shouldn't be underdogs to any French team not named PSG. Our model has Aston Villa as the fifth-best team in the Premier League. They've lost just one of eleven away in the Premier League against teams outside of the top seven, which was Nottingham Forest. Lille have scored in every home game in Ligue 1 and the Europa Conference League. Villa are likely going to need to score if they want to advance due to Lille's attacking quality but they are more than capable of outscoring the French side. They've scored in seven of eight away games against sides in the top half of the Premier League and four from five away in Europe.

1 Point on Aston Villa +0.25 Asian Handicap Best price available at 8/11 with bet365

1 Point on Over 2.75 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

Roma v AC Milan

The first leg finished 1-1, but according to our model, there were 2.69 expected goals. That makes it three out of three head-to-heads with over 2.50 expected goals this season between these two, with the meetings in Serie A finishing 1-2 (2.93 xG) and 3-1 (3.50 xG). Milan are the better side chasing the tie, which should open up this game from the off. I think this goal line should be 2.75 for the second leg of a knockout competition.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 17/20 with bet365

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