Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Saturday
Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.
A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.
Saturday's Best Bets
Brentford v Sheffield United
This number is too big on Sheffield United. I don't think Brentford should be laying -1.25 against anyone in the Premier League. They've won just once in their last ten and four of sixteen at home. They would have covered this handicap in just two of their four home wins. Sheffield United have now covered seven handicaps in a row, so the market has been underrating them for some time now. This game is crucial for relegation, so will be end to end once the first goal goes in and these are two of the worst back lines in the league.
1 Point on Sheffield United +1.25 Asian Handicap Best price available at 1.97 with bet365
1 Point on Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 1.88 with bet365
Preston v Norwich
We backed this spot on Tuesday and get it again on Saturday. Another good to play for spot with both teams chasing playoffs. Norwich have averaged 3.62 goals per game on the road this season and have gone over 2.5 in 76% of away games. Preston have gone over 2.5 in 76% of home games and in all five games against top eight opposition.
1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 1.93 with bet365
Millwall v Cardiff
Another spot we backed midweek was the Bluebirds to avoid defeat at Birmingham, so we're going back to the well again. Millwall have won three of their last four at home but they've lost the xG battle in three and created 0.70, 0.82, 1.16, and 0.69 expected goals. They've won two of ten at home against top half opposition and Cardiff have won seven of eleven away at sides in the bottom half. Millwall would probably be happy with a draw, can see 0-0 and 1-1 as big runners here, so taking Cardiff double chance at over evens feels like great value.
0.5 Points on Cardiff +0.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 2.02 with bet365
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For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.
