Atletico Madrid have been an over 2.5 machine at home in La Liga this season, seeing three or more goals in 79% of games at the Metropolitano. They've also scored two or more in their three home games in the Champions League and seen over 2.5 land in two. They created 1.02 xG in the first leg away at Inter and will need to score if they want to advance. They should have some success against an Inter defence that's allowed over 1.10 xG away in all three Champions League games and kept just one clean sheet on their travels. Inter have also scored in all three away games and should have success themselves going forward against an Atletico defence that has conceded in all three home games against sides in the top seven of La Liga and allowed over 1.00 xG at home to both Lazio and Feyenoord. If Inter score, Atleti will need to score at least two to force extra time, which makes over 2.5 value, given there are so many game states that keep this game open until the end.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 19/20 with BetMGM

Borussia Dortmund may have kept two clean sheets at home in the group stages, but they conceded over 1.00 expected goals in all three games. In their three home games against top-seven opposition in the Bundesliga, they've conceded four to Bayern, three to Leipzig (early red card), and three to Hoffenheim. They conceded against PSV in the first meeting and will have their hands full against a potent attack in the second leg. The Red and Whites scored in two from three away in the group stages and created 0.92 xG away at Arsenal in their only blank. They've dominated all other top sides domestically, beating Feyenoord, Twente, and Alkmaar away from home, scoring nine goals. Like Dortmund, they have struggled to keep clean sheets, with just one at home in their seven European matches. This game should be very open between two good attacking sides with shakey defences.

1 Point on Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 4/6 with bet365