Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Friday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Friday's Best Bets

Luton v Everton

This is obviously a must-win spot for Luton against an Everton side with nothing to play for. Everton have scored two or more away from home in four of their five matches against the bottom seven. It's quite remarkable given their xG performance on the season overall. Luton have kept just two clean sheets at home in 17, so they will likely need to push for at least two goals to win the game. It should be a back-and-forth type match with goals being upgraded for Everton having nothing to play for. 

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 4/6 with bet365

Getafe v Bilbao

Bilbao have drastic splits away against good and poor sides in La Liga. They are undefeated against bottom half sides in the table and have kept a clean sheet in seven of eight. However, against the top-half sides, they won once in eight, haven't kept a clean sheet, and conceded two or more in five. Getafe have nothing to play for and have scored in 11 of 16 at home. The first meeting ended 2-2, and Bilbao have a very slim chance of catching Atletico for fourth, and basically, no risk of falling out of the European places, so they may as well push for the win in all remaining games.

1 Point on Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 17/20 with bet365

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