Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Saturday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Saturday's Best Bets

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Chelsea have been involved in goal fests every week recently in the Premier League league. They've gone over 3.5 in each of their last seven and ten of their last 11. Villa have seen over 3.5 in three of their last four and five of eight home games against sides in the top half of the Premier League

0.5 Points on Over 3.5 Goals Best price available at 11/10 with bet365

Cardiff v Middlesbrough

A nothing to play for spot, which usually gives goals an upgrade anyway but Boro's away games have averaged 3.27 goals and they've seen over 2.5 land in 68%. Cardiff have been safe for a few games and have seen over 2.5 land in four of their last five.  

0.5 Points on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao

A fairly important game for fourth spot in La Liga, which gives Champions League football next season. Atletico have seen over 2.5 land in seven of eight at home against sides in the top half of La Liga. Bilbao have only seen over 2.5 in one of four away at the top six but their underlying metrics are good with three of four seeing over 2.70 xG, so odds against for over 2.5 goals looks good here.

0.5 Points on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 21/20 with bet365

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