Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Wednesday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Wednesday's Best Bets

Bayern Munich v Arsenal

The first leg finished 2-2, and there was 3.15 xG, according to our model. Arsenal have conceded in all four group games away from home in the Champions League, but they scored in three and created over 1.00 expected goal in every game. Bayern have seen over 2.5 land in three out of four home games in both the Champions League and the top six in the Bundesliga. Arsenal are having issues at left back with Kiwior and Zinchenko putting in poor performances, which allowed Sane to run riot in the first leg.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 8/11 with bet365

Man City v Real Madrid

The first leg finished 3-3, and it was pretty even on expected goals, according to our model. Man City have covered this handicap in just two out of eight games at home in the Premier League against teams in the top half. The main reason for this is they've conceded in ten of twelve home games against teams outside of the bottom six. Madrid would have failed to cover this handicap just just two of their previous twenty Champions League away games.

0.5 Points on Real Madrid +1 Asian Handicap Best price available at 1.91 with bet365

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