Saturday's free football betting tips and predictions: 8/1 EFL Accumulator!

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF8:30 AM 23 MAR 2024

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues.

My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.

Burton v Port Vale

Burton can get back to winning ways against a Port Vale side winless in their last 14 League One encounters. The Brewers have lost four on the spin at home, but their underlying metrics are encouraging, as they won the xG battle in two against opponents in the bottom half of the league. This is a spot where Burton have performed well against fellow relegation rivals with three wins, a draw and one of the losses above to Carlisle. Burton won the first meeting 3-2 away from home, and I expect them to do the double.

Carlisle v Stevenage

Stevenage have four wins and a draw away at sides in the bottom six of League One. They've scored two or more in all five encounters and will have too much for a Carlisle side that has struggled at home to top-tier opposition. The Blues have lost five, drawn one against the top six at home, and conceded 14 goals.

Sutton Utd v Accrington Stanley

Accrington can avoid defeat against a Sutton Utd side that has won just three wins at home all season. Sutton rank 19th in net expected goal difference and have just one win in six against sides in the bottom eight of League Two. Accrington have won four of five away at sides in the bottom six and they dispatched the hosts 4-1 in the first meeting.

Grimsby v Wrexham

Grimsby were a team we highlighted that were due a good run of form. Since then, they have gone unbeaten with three draws and two wins. They can avoid defeat at home to a Wrexham side that have been very inconsistent away from home with form figures of six wins, seven draws, and six losses. Grimsby have shown they can mix it with the big boys at home in League Two with three wins, two draws, and a sole loss against sides in the top seven.