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Bournemouth v Burnley

Bournemouth have shown absolutely nothing this season. I put it down to a tough set of fixtures to start the season, but they then lost to Everton 3-0 (-1.45 net xG) and Wolves 2-1 (-0.88 net xG) and were convincingly outplayed on expected goals. These are two of the worst defences. Both press high and try to play out the back but have been caught doing so on many occasions this season, gifting the opposition the ball in dangerous areas. This should be a very back and fourth match, with both teams needing the win.

Middlesbrough v Stoke

Boro have now won six on the bounce and face a Stoke side that have lost four of their six away games. The Potters have also struggled when facing playoff caliber teams. In their five games against teams inside the top eight, they've lost five of six overall and lost both away without troubling the scorers. Boro have been fantastic on expected goals all season and they're finally getting the results to show for their performances. They have +0.90 expected goals per 90 better than Stoke over the last eight matches and that rises to +1.60 over the last four.

Sunderland v Norwich

Norwich away games have been full of goals, averaging 4.67. They've seen over 2.5 land in 83% of them and have conceded 1.85 on average. Sunderland have scored an average of 1.62 and that includes a game where they blanked due to an early red card against Boro. They rank 7th in expected goals for, so should have some joy against the fourth-worst defence.

Wolves v Newcastle

Newcastle's squad is stretched as the injuries are piling up. The loss of Sven Botman is the main angle here. In the two away games without him, Newcastle have conceded three to Brighton and two to West Ham. Wolves have scored in all four home games against good opposition. All four of the teams they've played at home sit inside the top seven.

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