A breakdown of how we landed a 20/1 football accumulator tip on Sunday!

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF9:18 AM 14 NOV 2023

Let's take a look at the research process, statistics used and how the bet won.

Our football accumulator tips are released when there's a busy schedule, which tends to be weekends and midweek when there's European action.

On Sunday, we released a 20/1 accumulator focusing on the over 2.5 goals market.

Research Process

Every bet we put up has detailed analysis of why it's been selected, but here are some general trends of what we looked at on top of the usual form and team news:

Teams with poor defensive records

Union Berlin (2.2), Werder Bremen (2.0), and West Ham (1.85) have all conceded plenty of goals per game this season. Even Atletico hadn't kept a clean sheet at home all season and Freiburg had conceded two or more to all three of the top sides they'd faced.

Teams capable of scoring

Leverkusen, Leipzig, and Atletico are obviously good attacking sides. However, you want their opposition to still be capable of finding the back of the net and averaging over a goal per game or scoring against similar opponents.

Stats against opposition type

Breaking the table down into top-six, mid-table, and bottom-six is a good start. However, you need to be league-specific because there are only 3 to 4 strong teams in most European leagues. Look at last season for clues.

Two good examples of how this was used: Freiburg conceded 5, 5, 3, and 4 to the top four away from home last season. Sporting conceded 2, 3, 3 away from home against the top four sides in Portugal last season.

Strong over 2.5%

Having solid stats in the market you're betting on is obviously a bonus, but go deeper and look at home/away splits and against similar opposition types.

Atletico had seen over 2.5 in all five home games, and they'd played three of the bottom-eight. Leverkusen have seen over 2.5 goals land in 100% of matches this season, and Union Berlin have seen it land in 70%.

Statistics Used

- Goals For & Against
- Total Match Goals
- Expected Goals (xG) For & Against
- Over 2.5%
- Head-to-head Form

It's no good looking at general averages. You must look at opposition type, home/away splits and underlying xG numbers.

Union Berlin conceded an average of 2.20 goals per game away from home and had only played one team in the top half, a 4-2 loss at Dortmund. They faced one of the top attacking teams in Leverkusen and were expected to concede more than average. They lost 4-0.

Freiburg conceded 5, 5, 3, and 4 to the top four away from home last season. They had continued that trend this season, conceding 3, 2, and 5 to the top three. They lost 3-1.

Final Scores

3-2 West Ham v Forest
4-0 Leverkusen v Union Berlin
2-2 Werder Bremen v Frankfurt
3-1 Leipzig v Freiburg
3-1 Atletico v Villarreal
2-1 Benfica v Sporting

The bet was plain sailing until Benfica were trailing 1-0 against 10 men from the 51st min.

Heading into the 90th minute, they still trailed 1-0 and were on course to not score at home for the first time since May 2022 until... 94' Joao Neves fires them level and 99' Casper Tengstedt scores the winner After a painful VAR check, the goal was confirmed!

There you have it. A deep dive into how we landed a 20/1 free tip!

You, of course, will also need a bit of luck😉

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