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Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Predictions & Betting Tips

Atletico trail 1-0 after the first leg, which will open this game up from the start. Their away games against the top sides in La Liga have been low-scoring, but the underlying metrics indicate that we should see goals - Real Madrid (3.98 xG), Bilbao (2.44 xG), Barcelona (3.57 xG), Girona (4.49 xG), Betis (2.78 xG). They've also averaged 3.16 xG over their last eight games. Bilbao have conceded two in three of their four home games against sides in the top six of La Liga, and they conceded over 1.00 xG in three. Bilbao have seen over 2.5 land in 77% of their home games, mainly because they've scored two or more in 11/13. Atletico have conceded in six of seven away against top-half teams and two or more in four, so they will likely have to score multiple goals to advance to the final against Mallorca.

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free and covers over ten leagues. My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Best price available at 2.20 with Betfred

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