EFL Championship Predictions 2024/25: Outright betting tips & 1-24 table predictions
The Sky Bet Championship kicks off today, so let's run through some outright predictions and a prediction of where we think every team will finish!
Outright Bets
▪️ Burnley E/W - 8/1
▪️ Luton Top 6 - 6/5
▪️ Bristol City - Top South West Club - 9/4
▪️ Blackburn Relegated - 7/2
▪️ Plymouth Relegated - 9/4
Top goalscorer tips will be added once the transfer window closes.
1-24 Table Predictions
1. Burnley
The Clarets were comfortably the best relegated side last season, especially towards the end of the campaign, where they were 14th in expected goal difference over the last 12 games in the Premier League. They performed very well against the bottom six in the Premier League and were 7th in expected goal difference. Scott Parker is proven at the level with a second-place finish with Bournemouth in 21/22 and a playoff win with Fulham in 19/20 after finishing fourth.
2. Luton
Ross Barkley and Ryan Giles lost in the transfer window, but the squad still has heaps of quality. Shandon Baptiste in to try and be Barkley's replacement. Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo are both coming off double-digit goal hauls in the Premier League. Ideally, they would like another centre-back. Otherwise, it looks like more goal fests for the Hatters. Joint-highest over 2.5% in the Premier League last season at 71%.
3. Leeds
Unbelievable talent in the squad, but as it stands, the loss of Summerville is too big to predict automatic promotion. 20 goals and 29 goal contributions meant he had his hand in 36% of Leeds' goals last season. There is a lot of buzz and pressure surrounding Mateo Joseph to fill the void. I would also have liked the business to be done earlier, given they play another playoff contender in Boro in week two and a tricky away game against Sheffield Wednesday in week three. Question marks around the squad's mental strength with just two wins from the last eight games last season when the pressure was on.
4. Middlesbrough
Finished sixth in expected points last season and were just the 12th-best home team in the league. It was a big regression, given they were third-best in 2022/23, mainly due to being unlucky as they were sixth in expected points at home. They need to fix their defensive record away from home if they want to push for automatics; 36 conceded in 23 on their travels last season. A quiet window with just two signings added Aidan Morris and Delano Burgzorg. I would like more defensive quality added to push for automatic promotion.
5. Sheffield United
It's a small squad as it stands, but they've made moves in the last week. They have made £33 million this window, so I expect them to be busy until it closes, and this prediction is based on them adding more quality. They've sold five strikers and only bought in Kieffer Moore, who will definitely get you goals at this level. Callum O'Hare is a solid signing; hopefully, he can stay fit. I like what they've done defensively, bringing in McCallum, Shackleton, Burrows, Souttar, and Gilchrist. The defence needed a refresh after conceding 35 goals in 23 games under Wilder. The Blades boss stock has never been lower, but he has a career average of 1.59 points per game in the Championship, compared to just 0.88 in the top flight.
6. Sunderland
The biggest expected points underperformers last season. They should have finished fifth, but scoring 1.13 goals per game instead of 1.47 will hurt you over a season. Fifth in net expected goals against the top six last season, shows they can mix it with the big boys. I would be bullish on them if they bought in a striker, but I like the addition of Alan Browne. It's a very talented squad with upside, but there are question marks surrounding the manager with worrying underlying performance metrics during his time at Lorient. Battled with a managerial merry-go-round last season and a toxic atmosphere in the stands for Beale's tenure. Hopefully, there will be more stability at the Stadium of Light this season, but this squad has serious talent even if it isn't Le Bris that ends the season in the dugout.
7. Coventry
Finished eight in expected points, which is pretty much as expected last season. They were 12th in expected points over the last 12 games of last season and 12th in the actual points over the last half of the season. I haven't been that impressed by their business. O'Hare only played half a season but was their third-best player in terms of ratings. In comes Thomas-Asante, who is a fairly average Championship player with 11 goals in 39 games last season, and Jack Rudoni who was below league average last season but playing in a relegated side. Ben Wilson was atrocious for them last season, with a 59% save percentage and conceding 4.75 goals more than expected. It took half a season for them to replace him, but Collins was much better, and they've added another keeper in the window with international experience. Would like more squad depth for them to secure playoffs.
8. West Brom
The Baggies have lost four of their top eight for minutes played in Kipre, Townsend, Yokuslu, and Thomas-Asante. This side's defence was its strength, boasting the second-best defensive record in the league, but they have lost two starters and Yokuslu, who sat in front of them. They were the joint second-lowest scorers in the top nine, so a side not exactly brimming with goals losing their top scorer in Thomas-Asante may be a good thing, but they need replacements. Devante Cole got 18 goals in 45 in League One last season, but it may not be enough
9. Bristol City
The Robins finished strong and were ninth in expected points over their last 12 games, which suggests the players were starting to get things going under Manning. It was his first full summer to working with the players and bringing in the talent he wants. They needed more attacking output and went out and signed three attacking players. Fally Mayulu from Rapid Vienna will be their main hope, who had 27 goal contributions last season and exciting winger Yu Kirakawa, who's an international at U23 level and played in the Olympics for Japan. Sinclair Armstrong was also added from QPR. More business to be done with Conway exiting. Getting Twine back would be great business, as he excelled during his loan spell at Ashton Gate.
10. QPR
Ninth in the league table since Cifuentes took charge and eleventh in expected points over the last 12 games. They need a goalscorer to compete this season. Their highest goalscorer had just seven goals last season. Hopes are pinned on Zan Celar, who scored 40 goals in 95 appearances in Switzerland. Their highest scorer had just seven goals last season. They were the fourth-lowest scorers in the division last season, and I'd still like more attacking talent added.
11. Sheffield Wednesday
There is huge potential and upside for this Wednesday side, who were ninth in the league table since Danny Rohl took over. They were 13th in expected points of the last 12 games, but the signing of Ike Ugbo was just what they needed after his successful loan spell last season, scoring seven in 18. They still need more goal output to climb the table, being the second-lowest scorers in the division last season. Olaf Kobacki arrives from Poland with 18 goal contributions, and pieces have been added in Svante Ingelsson, Charlie McNeill, and Jamal Lowe.
12. Stoke
The Potters were big expected points underperformers last season with 56 from 63.53 xPTS. The underperformance was mainly due to their attack not being able to put away chances. I'm not sure the addition of Sam Gallagher is the answer, with just ten goals in his last 58 Championship games. They were fifth in expected points over the last 12 games and 14th since Schumacher took over. They've bolstered the defence with the addition of Viktor Johansson, but like many other top-half sides, I would like more attacking threat.
13. Norwich
Big expected points overperformers last season, who should have finished 12th, so losing Wagner may not be a bad thing, but losing 24% of their goals in Sara and Idah will be difficult to replace (assuming the latter departs). The 17th in expected goal difference against sides in the top six shows that they weren't up to the standard of a playoff contender. They've had a complete defensive overhaul, which was much needed after finishing 10th in goals allowed. There are a lot of questions about the Canaries surrounding the new manager and defence, a replacement for Sara, and a backup for Sargent.
14. Swansea
16th in the table since Luke Williams came in for 20 games, but positive signs over the last 12 games as they finished fifth in expected points. They were seventh in expected goals created during the final stretch but a big underperformance in goals. Hopes lie with Zan Vipotnik, who scored 10 in 37 in the second tier in France and exciting South Korean winger Ji-sung Eom. The squad still looks a bit light, highlighted by their minutes given to a trialist in their final friendly last weekend.
15. Watford
As it stands, it is one of the most challenging squads to predict. There is massive uncertainty surrounding the future of Louza, Hoedt and Asprilla, and the current squad looks like a contender for relegation. They were 16th in the league since Cleverley took over and 21st in expected points over the last 12 games. However, there is £12m to spend following the sale of Kone, and I'm assuming it will be spent by a club that I trust will spend the money well. They also have links to Udinese, who have spent and received £19 million this transfer window. It feels like the Hornets are currently playing second fiddle to the Italian side.
16. Preston
Big overperformers last season with a 10th-place finish but 18th in expected points. They ended the season particularly poorly with 11 points from their last 12 games, good for 20th in the league. Their business has been very uninspiring. Alan Browne departs for Sunderland, and they've brought in two players who had poor loan spells last season in Sam Greenwood and Kaine Kesler-Hayden. Their form at Deepdale was the catalyst for success last season as they finished the eighth-best side at home on points, but there are worrying signs that they were 20th in expected points.
17. Portsmouth
They dominated League One last season and were 11 points clear of third with six games to play. Poached Josh Murphy off fellow division newcomer Oxford and added experience in Matt Richie from Newcastle. Jordan Williams has been added at right back from Barnsley, as well as Elias Sorensen, Silvera, and Dozzell. I expect John Mourinho's men to hold their own in the division, whose build-up style has been compared to that of Roberto De Zerbi.
18. Millwall
Neil Harris galvanised the club last season when he took over. They were second in points during his 13 game spell, but a few warning signs are there given they were 18th in expected points. A really sad situation with the unexpected passing of goalkeeper Bartosz Bialkowski during the summer. Macaulay Langstaff and Tanganga arrive on permanent deals. One of the biggest home advantages in the league should keep them safe.
19. Derby
Getting promoted and selling some of your better players set off the warning signs for me during the summer, but I think they have replaced Hourihane, Sibley, and Wildsmith with some brilliant business in Ozoh, Blackett-Taylor, Osbourne and Kayden Jackson. The Rams were right up there with Pompey last season and had the best defensive record in the league, which will be vital in keeping them in the division. They had the second-best record against the top six in League One last season, so they fully deserved promotion.
20. Cardiff
According to expected points, they were the second biggest overperformers in the league last season, where they should have finished 21st. They scored 21 of their 53 goals from set pieces, and joint top scorer and third top scorer were both centre-backs. Thankfully for Bluebirds fans, I think they've made a few decent signings in Chambers, El Ghazi, and promising youngster Alex Roberston.
21. Hull
Like Watford, Hull are an extremely difficult club to predict right now. Their current squad is relegation standard; they've had an atrocious pre-season, and the manager has already said he needs more players. They do have £35 million sitting there ready to spend, though, following the sale of Greaves, Philogene, and Tufan. Ryan Giles is a quality signing, but they need more players, especially a centre forward. Their new manager has been described as playing "heart attack style" football, so there should at least be some entertainment at the MKM stadium this season.
22. Blackburn
19th in the league table since John Eustace took over. Szmodics carried them last season and he's likely to join Sam Gallagher by departing. They'll look to replace Szmodic's goals with new signing Gueye, who scored 31 in 93 in the Belgian League, and Yuki Ohashi's 14 goal contributions in 22 games in the J League. John Eustace has a 1.00 points per game record at Blackburn and 1.24 during his time at Birmingham, an average which would see you relegated.
23. Plymouth
23rd in expected points last season, so you bring in Wayne Rooney, who averaged 0.67 points per game at Birmingham, 1.04 at DC United, and 1.14 at Derby. Tally's that would comfortably see you in a relegation battle. A very quiet transfer window and rumours surrounding Morgan Whittaker's future. Before the window closes, they play away at QPR and Sheffield Wednesday, so if they start poorly, Whittaker may choose to move on and leave them scrambling.
24. Oxford
They've done some smart transfer business over the summer, but it was needed. 77 points in League One was 20 behind champions Pompey and finished eight in expected points. They were 13th in points over the second half of the season. They also had the 9th best record in expected goal difference against the top six in League One, worrying signs for a step up in level. The loss of Josh Murphy is the final nail in the coffin for the The U's.
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