England vs Netherlands Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF08:41 AM 10 JULY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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England v Netherlands

England may have looked weak so far in this tournament, but the Netherlands could be the perfect opponent for them to make it to the final. In recent times, the Netherlands have an abysmal record when punching up against the bigger nations. Over the past 18 months leading up to the tournament, they've lost to France twice (0-4 and 1-2), Italy 2-3, Croatia 2-4, and Germany 1-2. They've also lost 3-2 to Austria and drew 0-0 with France in Germany. England have the defensive quality in wide areas to stop the Netherlands attack, and the Netherlands don't have a strong enough defence to shut England out. They've already conceded to Poland, Turkey, and Austria twice.

1 Point on England Draw No Bet Best price available at 5/6 with bet365

When the quality of competition increases, so does Dumfries' foul count. Over the past 18 months, his foul counts read France (4 and 2), Germany (2), Croatia (2), and Italy (4). At the World Cup, in the quarter-final against Argentina, he committed a whopping six fouls and was sent off. This is mainly due to the Netherlands' tactical plan and drop in possession to an average of 48% over those seven matches.

1 Point on Denzel Dumfries Over 1.5 Fouls Committed Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

Along the same lines, for the tactical side of things, this bet is overpriced given how many fouls Kane and Bellingham draw from central areas. De Vrij has committed a foul in four of his five starts at the Euros. England are the most fouled team in the tournament. They have faced a back four twice in Germany, and both centrebacks committed at least one foul in both games. In the other matches, facing a back three, only two of the nine defenders didn't commit a foul.

1 Point on De Vrij 1+ Fouls Committed Best price available 5/6 with Paddy Power, and 5/6with Betfair

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