England vs Spain Predictions, Betting Tips & Match Preview

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF10:41 AM 14 JULY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Euro 2024 Final Best Bets

England vs Spain

My first bet is over the 2.0 Asian goal line at 1.87. This means exactly 2 goals is a refund, three or more and we win.

Spain should have success against this England defence, especially in wide areas. They have a makeshift right back in Bukayo Saka up against Nico Williams. Left Back has been an issue throughout for England. Lamine Yamal will up against either Trippier, arguably England's worst player this summer, or Luke Shaw, who hasn't started a game in over four months. England should also have success down the right with Saka up against Cucurella, who is the weak link in this Spanish defence.

I like multiple game states for opening the game up too. If England trail, they'll need to push and the game will open up like it did in the first half against the Netherlands. If England lead, they'll sit deep and try to keep the Spanish attack out, which they won't be able to do.

England have kept just five clean sheets in 25 games against teams ranked inside the top 10 in the world, two of which came against Croatia.

Southgate has faced Spain three times: a 3-2 away win and a 2-1 home loss in the Nations League in 2018 and a 2-2 draw in a friendly in 2016.

1 Point on Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 1.87 with bet365

My second best bet is Alvaro Morata to commit 2+ fouls at 11/10. Morata has cleared 2+ fouls in all five games he's started at the Euros. His foul count reads 3, 2, 3, 2, and 2. The way Spain counter press when they lose the ball creates additional fouls for Spain's number 9. He's also not afraid to get into aerial duels and looks like a big price to commit 2 more fouls in a high pressure game.

1 Point on Alvaro Morata Over 1.5 Fouls Committed Best price available 11/10 with Paddy Power, and 11/10 with Betfair

My final best bet is Marc Cucurella to be booked at 3/1. The Chelsea defender has committed a foul in every game at the Euros but is yet to go into the book. This may come as a surprise given he picked up 10 yellow cards in 21 Premier League appearances last season for Chelsea. Cucurella will be up against England's most dangerous attacking player in the tournament, Bukayo Saka. He faced the Arsenal winger twice in the Premier League last season and was booked in both meetings. He also picked up 2 fouls in each clash.

0.5 Points on Marc Cucurella to be booked Best price available 3/1 with William Hill, and 3/1 with Spreadex.

12/1 Bet Builder

Adding 2 fouls committed to the other two best bets gives a nice 12/1 bet builder and a longer odds selection to enjoy this massive game with for fun stakes.

- Morata 2+ Fouls Committed

- Cucurella 2+ Fouls Committed

- Cucurella To Be Booked

0.1 Points on Best price available 12/1 with Paddy Power and 12/1 with Betfair

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