Euro 2024 Predictions: 8/1 outright winner, 80/1 dark horse and 20/1 name the finalists betting tip

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF8:05 PM 11 JUN 2024

Outright Winner

Most sides at the top of the market have holes in them, but there are two standout candidates. I wouldn't be shocked to see a dark horse make a deep run at Euro 2024.

I'll briefly comment on each of the top contenders heading to Germany.

We've put together a Euro 2024 Betting Data Thread on Twitter, which covers a range of data from the qualifiers and the last two years of competitive matches and friendlies.

bet365 Offer

bet365 are boosting your pick to win the Euros by 25%

Example: Place a £20 bet on England to win the Euros and see your returns increase from £90 to £107.50!

You can also get £30 in free bets if you sign up below and bet £10 on any Euro 2024 market.

Bet365 Offer

England

4/1 is far too short with the centre-back options available and Southgate's record against the top nations. They may have the best front six in the competition but aren't value at the current prices, especially given the performance against Iceland.

France

One of the standout contenders with an elite squad. However, France aren't the sort of side I want to be backing at 4/1 in what I think is an underrated, tricky group.

Germany

Home advantage will play a significant factor for the Germans, but the lack of competitive football and Kai Havertz's finishing ability put me off backing them at 11/2 outright. I'll look to back them in other ways in the group stage.

Portugal

They demolished everyone in qualifying, but I don't trust Roberto Martinez as a manager to go deep in a major tournament after we saw what he did with Belgium's talent in recent years. Another side I think there are better options to get them on side than in the outright market.

Spain

It's a tricky group, but La Roja's recent success over Italy and Croatia in the Nations League gives me confidence that they are undervalued. Although they drew 0-0 with Croatia, they won the xG battle 1.36-0.89. Spain were also comfortably the better side in a 3-3 draw with Brazil in a recent friendly, winning the xG battle 2.40-1.08. They've lost on penalties in their last two major tournaments, with a Round of 16 exit in the World Cup to Morocco and Italy in the semi-finals of the previous European Championships. The third-best defence in qualifying, and Alvaro Morata is coming off his joint-best ever domestic campaign with 15 goals for Atletico Madrid. 8/1 is great value for a squad packed with depth across the pitch.

Italy

Italy could be a potential surprise package under Luciano Spaletti, but the squad's lack of experience and the form of previous winners put me off at the prices.

Netherlands

They have struggled when they step up in class, with losses to Germany, France twice, Italy, and Croatia on their CV in the last 18 months.

Belgium

They are another potential surprise package with a straightforward path to the quarter-final, but a meeting with France there puts me off, and I'll look to back them in other ways in the group stage.

Outright Selection

Spain 8/1 - 0.25 Points Each Way with Paddy Power

Read about our bankroll management and staking plan.

Paddy Power Offer

Dark Horse

The right hand side of the draw (Groups D, E, and F) look like they could be rife for a dark horse to make a deep run with question marks over Portugal and Belgium in the latter stages of the tournament.

The right-hand side of the draw (Groups D, E, and F) could be rife for a dark horse to make a deep run with question marks over Portugal and Belgium in the tournament's latter stages.

Austria look like value at 80/1. They have an impressive 2-0 win over tournament host Germany, a draw and a loss with Belgium, but they won the xG battle in their 3-2 loss, 2.01-1.20. They also have a 6-1 win over Turkey, a 2-1 win over Serbia, and a respectable 1-1 draw against Switzerland last time out.

Under Ralf Rangnick, they play an aggressive, high-pressing style of football and could cause some problems in Group D. A second-place finish would give them a good draw against the second-place finisher in Group E and a potential quarter-final against the winner of Group F (Portugal).

There has been a semi-finalist that was 50/1 or bigger in five of the last eight European Championships. '92 - Denmark (50/1), '96 - Czechia (80/1), '04 - Greece - (150/1), '08 - Turkey (50/1), and '16 - Wales (100/1).

Dark Horse Selection

Here's how I'm backing Austria to go deep in Germany:

80/1 Outright - 0.10 Points Each Way with Paddy Power

11/4 To Reach the Quarter-Finals - 0.50 Points with Betfred

8/1 To Reach the Semi-Finals - 0.25 Points with bet365

Name The Finalists

There are two sides that stand out to me on opposite sides of the draw and they are 20/1 to meet in the final, so why not have a small dart on it.

20/1 - France/Spain final - 0.10 Points with Sky Bet

We've put together a Euro 2024 Betting Data Thread on Twitter, which covers a range of data from the qualifiers and the last two years of competitive matches and friendlies.