Football accumulator tips for Sunday: Back Roma to continue 100% over 2.5 record in this 11/1 goals acca!
My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free, and covers over 10 leagues.
My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.
All expected goals data referenced in this article is from my own model data.
Roma v Sassuolo
Roma are now eight out of eight for games over 2.5 under Daniele De Rossi. They'll now face a Sassuolo side that ranks 18th in goals allowed and 16th in xG allowed. Both of these sides' home/away games average over 2.70 expected goals and this should be another game that sails over 2.5. Roma have played four home games in Serie A under De Rossi that have finished 2-1, 4-0, 2-4, and 3-2.
Atalanta v Fiorentina
Atalanta have seen over 2.5 land in six of their seven home games against sides in the top half of Serie A. Fiorentina have been inconsistent this season. Still, they've seen over 3.00 expected goals in away games at Inter, Napoli, and Milan, with red cards in the other games involving the top six. The first meeting ended 3-2, and conditions look perfect for another entertaining game in Bergamo on Sunday.
Verona v AC Milan
Milan have scored two or more away in all six games against sides in the bottom eight of Serie A. They've scored three in four and will now travel to face Verona after putting three past Slavia Prague in the Europa League on Thursday. Milan have shown they can be vulnerable defensively following midweek European games. They conceded two to Lecce, one to Frosinone and four to Monza. They played a very strong team away in Prague on Thursday night, which could open the door for the home side to get on the score sheet. Verona have already scored in four of six home games against sides in the top eight, including two against Juve and Roma.
PSV v Twente
PSV have scored three or more in four of their six home games against sides in the top half of the Eredivisie. They've seen three or more goals against the other top four sides in all four games, three of which came away from home. They've only played three home games against sides in the top six, and they've finished 2-2, 5-2, and 4-0. They beat Twente 3-0 away from home in the first meeting but are playing following a midweek Champions League game in Dortmund, so tired legs could open the door for Twente to get on the score sheet. They've conceded in three from six games following a midweek Champions League game.
11/1 Accumulator
Over 2.5 Goals - Roma v Sassuolo
Over 2.5 Goals - Atalanta v Fiorentina
Over 2.5 Goals - Verona v AC Milan
Over 3.0 Asian Goal Line - PSV v FC Twente
£10 returns £118.80 with CopyBet
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