Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Thursday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Thursday's Best Bets

Brighton vs Manchester City

Brighton are very well rested here, with their last match coming 12 days ago. Since the start of April, they've played three matches compared to Manchester City's six. Brighton were poor against Arsenal, but De Zerbi played a heavily-rotated side, and they still created 1.11 expected goals. This is a spot we've been backing for a while now. Man City don't keep clean sheets away from home against good sides. They've kept just one over the past two seasons away at sides in the top half of the Premier League in 16 matches.

1 Point on Both Teams To Score Best price available at 8/11 with bet365

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