Free Football Betting Tips: Best Bets for Sunday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using my expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Sunday's Best Bets

Liverpool closed as -1.5 favourites against Chelsea at the end of January, and now you can back them at a neutral venue at 1.73 Draw No Bet? That is a price I cannot pass up. Yes, they have injuries with Trent, Jota, Alisson and Jones all out, but we should see Salah, Robertson, and Nunez, who all trained ahead of the final. Chelsea couldn't cope with Liverpool's press and kept turning the ball over high, resulting in 28 shots in a 4-1 victory for the Reds - 2.58 v 1.08 xG.

1 Point on Liverpool Draw No Bet Best price available at 1.75 with bet365

Milan have been a team we've seemingly backed every week for goals over the past couple of months. They've scored 18 goals in their last eight and have gone over 2.5 in six. Atalanta have been in fine goalscoring form with 18 goals in their last six games. According to our model, the first meeting ended 3-2 with 3.64 expected goals.

1 Point on AC Milan v Atalanta - Over 2.5 Goals at Best price available at 1.86 with bet365

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