Free Football Betting Tips: Best Bets for Friday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using my expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Friday's Best Bets

Milan have seen over 2.5 land in seven of their last ten Serie A games. Their last six games have averaged 2.84 expected goals (xG) and they'll face a Lazio side that have averaged 2.60 xG. Lazio's home games have only seen 2.38 xG and 1.83 goals but when you isolate the top sides in Serie A we see a big increase. They've conceded two to Inter, Bologna, and Atalanta. Their only clean sheet came in the derby against Roma under Mourinho. Milan have scored two or more away at five of six opponents inside the top half including three of the top six. Both sides have kept one clean sheet home and away in eight games each. Milan have scored 18 goals in their last 8 Serie A games.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Best price available at 2.20 with Spreadex

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