Free Football Betting Tips: Best Bets for Sunday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using my expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Sunday's Best Bets

Frosinone have the highest total goals per game in Serie A at 3.43. They face a Lecce side with the fourth-worst defence in Serie A, allowing 1.65 goals per game. Frosinone have seen over 2.5 land in all six home games against sides in the bottom half and over 3.5 land in three. Lecce have seen both teams find the back of the net in all five against sides in the bottom half, so we should be in for more goals and over 2.5 looks great value at 20/21.

1 Point on Frosinone v Lecce - Over 2.5 Best price available at 1.95 with bet365

Atalanta average 3.05 expected goals per home game and have seen over 2.5 land in 62%. They have the second-best expected goals created in Serie A and have scored two or more in nine of 13 at home. Bologna have drastic home/away splits in their results with 11 wins from 14 at home and just two in 12 away. They've seen over 2.5 land in four of five away against top half teams and conceded two in three. 21/20 for over 2.5 presents a nice bit of value. 

1 Point on Atalanta v Bologna - Over 2.5 Best price available at 2.07 with bet365

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