Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Friday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Friday's Best Bets

QPR vs Leeds

QPR have been a completely different side under Marti Cifuentes. In their last 12 home games, they are the eighth-best team in the Championship on net xG. If you look at their last 12 games overall, they are sixth. Leeds have beaten a top half side away from home by two goals just once in 11 games. They've allowed over 1.00 xG away from home in each of their last four away. We faded Leeds in this spot against Watford recently, and I like the Hoops to cover this handicap again.

1 Point on QPR +1 Asian Handicap Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid

Real Madrid will rotate with their Champions League semi-final on Tuesday night, and the league wrapped up, but they are too big here. Sociedad have won just one of eight games home and away against sides in the top seven. They've also only won two of six home games against sides in the top half of La Liga. Madrid have lost one game all season in La Liga and can avoid defeat even with a rotated eleven.

1 Point on Real Madrid +0.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 4/7 with bet365

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