Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Good Friday
Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.
A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.
Friday's Best Bets
Bristol City vs Leicester City
Bristol City have lost five of their last six and now face a challenging game against promotion-chasing Leicester City. The Foxes have been the best side in the league away from home, with 42 points from 19 games. This sets up to be a very difficult matchup for Bristol City, who were comfortably beaten by Ipswich and Leeds at Ashton Gate. They did put in arguably their best performance of the season at home to Southampton, but I think Leicester are value at 7/10 given they've dominated sides in the bottom half of the league with eight wins from nine, scoring two or more goals in seven.
1 Point on Leicester Win Best price available at 7/10 with bet365
Millwall vs West Brom
West Brom have kept 10 clean sheets at home in 19 games but have been much higher scorers on the road. Their away games have averaged 2.63 goals and 2.55 expected goals per game. They've scored two or more in five of nine away games against sides in the bottom half of the Championship, kept just three clean sheets and seen over 2.5 land in six. Millwall have conceded two or more in four of six at the Den against sides in the top eight. They've seen a significant drop in home form this season and kept one clean sheet at home against sides in the top half of the league.
1 Point on Over 2.0 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 10/11 with bet365
Watford vs Leeds
Watford won their first game under Tom Cleverley 1-0 away at Birmingham and will face a stiff test welcoming top-of-the-table Leeds United to Vicarage Road. Leeds have been in spectacular form since the turn of the year, winning 12 of 13. However, this is a spot where there I think Leeds are being overvalued in the market. Their record away from home against teams in the top half of the Championship reads 4-1-4, and just one of their wins came by more than one goal. Watford have lost by more than one goal just once at home all season, and they've lost two of five at home to sides in the top six of the Championship.
0.5 Points on Watford +1 Asian Handicap Best price available at 20/21 with bet365
Best Bet Free Bets
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For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.
