Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Sunday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Sunday's Best Bets

Leeds v Southampton

Southampton have beaten Leeds twice already this season - 2-1 at Elland Road and 3-1 at home. They won the expected goals battle in both games too 1.09-0.97 at home and 1.28-1.37 away. Despite only suffering two defeats, Leeds have lost the expected goal battle in six of their seven away games against sides in the top eight of the Championship. Compare that to Saints who have lost three games away at the top eight but have lost the expected goals battle just twice to Boro and Leicester. This will be a closely contested game but I think Southampton are value to avoid defeat.

1 Point on Southampton Double Chance (Win or Draw) at Best price available at 4/6 with bet365

Haugesund v Sandefjord

According to the Soccerbase expected goals model, Sandefjord are a better side than Haugesund. They've also played a harder schedule this season with four games out of nine against the top five sides. They played Rosenborg even (1.20-1.15) despite losing the game 2-0, and were the better side against Odd (1.05-1.52) in a 2-2 draw. Haugsend have lost at home and were comfortably beaten on expected goals by Lillestrom and Rosenborg, who are two sides we have rated below Sandefjord.

0.5 Points on Sandefjord Draw  No Bet Best price available at 2.35 with bet365

Odd BK v Lillestrom

The Soccerbase expected goals model has Odd rated as the worst team in Norway on net expected goals. They've lost five of ten so far this season and won just two games. Lillestrom have won three of four away and their performances have been strong, winning the expected goals battle in three. Odd haven't won a home game and have conceded two or more in all five.

0.5 Points on Lillestrom Draw No Bet Best price available at 1.83 with bet365

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If you had bet Bet Builder selections to £20 a point this season, you'd have made +£256.80 in profit—and we only started in February!

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