Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Thursday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Thursday's Best Bets

Bayer Leverkusen v West Ham

With Bowen out, I expect West Ham to be very compact and look to play on the counter. They won't change their game plan at 1-0 down, and without Bowen's pace, they won't be as dangerous on the counter. They are also missing Alvarez from midfield, which will see JWP sit alongside Soucek, denting their attacking capabilities by playing him deeper. Leverkusen haven't been as free-scoring of late with no game in their last 10, seeing 4 goals in the Bundesliga.

0.5 Points on Under 3.0 Goal Line Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

Olympiakos v Fenerbahce

Olympiakos are very aggressive and home and have a big home advantage. They've seen over 2.5 land in five of seven and seen over 2.50 expected goals in six, with one miss coming against West Ham at 2.44. They've conceded to the likes of Cukaricki and TSC twice. Fenerbahce have scored in six of seven away trips in Europe and seen over 2.5 in five of seven. They've created over 1.00 xG in six of seven with one miss against Twente at 0.98. They've also allowed over 1.00 xG in five of seven. I think over 2.5 is value.

0.5 Points on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 17/20 with bet365

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For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.


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