Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Tuesday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

Tuesday's Best Bets

Borussia Dortmund v Atletico Madrid

The first leg finished 2-1, and there was 2.99 xG, according to our model. This sets up an exciting spot for the second leg, with the home team chasing the tie. Neither of these sides are good defensively. Despite going under 2.5 goals in all four Champions League home games, Dortmund saw over 2.70 xG in each match and conceded over 1.00 xG in all four games. They've conceded four, one, and three against the top four in the Bundesliga. Their match xG for these games was 3.98 (Bayern), 3.61 (Leipzig), and 2.90 (Stuttgart). Atletico have a similar profile; they conceded over 1.40 xG in all four away games, including games at Celtic, Feyenoord, and Lazio. They didn't keep a clean sheet in any away game. The same is true in La Liga, where they've conceded in all five away at the top seven and two or more in three. They've conceded over 1.00 xG in 13/15 away games in La Liga, which came against Almeria (bottom) and Vallecano (16th). Against the top sides in La Liga, their underlying xG metrics read Barcelona 3.57, Madrid 3.98, Girona 4.49, and Bilbao 2.44. This should be another fun one on Tuesday night.

1.5 Points on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 16/25 with BetMGM

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For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.


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