Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Best Bets for Wednesday
Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.
A big part of finding value is using our expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.
Wednesday's Best Bets
Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
This game is being priced based on Dortmund's season-long form rather than their current form, which is much improved. Their underlying expected goal metrics have actually been solid all season, so it isn't surprising that their results have improved. They recently beat Bayern 2-0, and won the xG battle 1.80-1.58 away from home. Atletico were just beaten 3-0 by Barcelona at home, and have won just two of six against the top six in La Liga. One of those wins was 3-1 against Madrid, but they lost the xG battle 1.21-1.71. This should be a close game where there is value on the underdog to avoid defeat.
1 Point on Borussia Dortmund Double Chance (Win or Draw) Best price available at 21/20 with bet365
Birmingham v Cardiff
Big motivation difference here with Blues in a relegation scrap and Cardiff could potentially be on the beach, which is why I'm dropping stakes. However, Birmingham shouldn't be odds on against a side in the top half of the league. They've won two of their last ten and three of nine at home against top half teams. Cardiff have won five of nine away against sides in the bottom half and only lost three.
0.5 Points on Cardiff Double Chance (Win or Draw) Best price available at 20/21 with bet365
Best Bet Free Bets
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New Betfred customers can get £50 in bonuses when they sign up here for a new account and get £10 on the game!
For daily football tips, predictions, and betting strategy head over to the Soccerbase free football betting tips section.
