Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Euro 2024 Best Bets for Friday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF12:40 pM 04 JULY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Friday's Best Bets

Germany v Spain

Jamal Musiala is the joint top goalscorer at Euro 2024 with three goals. He gets a good matchup against Spain, who like to play with high fullbacks and leave space behind - we saw how effective Georgia were on the break. Musiala has hit the target in all four Euro 2024 games and eight out of ten games under Nagelsmann. In his two misses, he still took four shots in 60 minutes and two shots.

1 Point on Jamal Musiala 1+ Shot On Target Best price available 5/6 with Paddy Power, and 5/6 with Betfair

Morata has committed two or more fouls in all three starts at Euro 2024. He also committed three against Spain's Nation League semi-final game against Italy and one in the final against Croatia. Spain will look to play over Germany's press into Morata and will likely get into some duels with Le Normand and Laporte. He could also get frustrated with the quality of service he's getting, as he did last time out when he didn't have a shot and picked up three fouls against Georgia in 66 minutes.

1 Point on Morata 2+ Fouls Best price available 17/10 with Paddy Power, and 17/10with Betfair

Portugal v France

His shot counts at the Euros read 4, 2, and 3. He took two or more shots in three of five during qualifying and looks like value to have another two shots against Portugal. Seven of his nine shots have come from outside the box at the Euros and France looked underwhelming going forward against Belgium. This opens up opportunity for Tchouameni to continue striking them from long range.

1 Point on Tchouameni 2+ Shots Best price available 5/4 with Paddy Power, and 5/4 with Betfair

When the stakes increase, so does Pepe's foul expectancy. He didn't commit a foul in the group games, but he did in the Round of 16 against Slovenia. He did the same thing during the World Cup, where he didn't commit a foul in either group-stage appearance but committed one in both knockout games. He did the same thing at club level for Porto in the Champions League. He committed a foul in one of five starts during the group stages, but he was two from two against Arsenal in the knockout stages. He is also 41 years old and will be up against the pace of Mbappe, Thuram, and Dembele.

1 Point on Pepe 1+ Foul Best price available 4/6 with Paddy Power, and 4/6 with Betfair

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