Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Euro 2024 Best Bets for Monday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF10:30 AM 18 JunE 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Monday's Best Bets

Belgium v Slovakia

Belgium averaged 2.80 goals scored in qualifying, scored three or more and over 2.5 land in five of eight. The Red Devils have scored two or more in five of six away and three or more in four. This is a big step up in class for Slovakia, who lost both games to Portugal in qualifying. They lost the away leg 3-2 and conceded 3.52 xG. Slovakia have scored in 12 of their last 15 games and six of eight in qualifying, including the two away at Portugal. The Belgians have Courtois out and injury doubts over Vertonghen, Witsel, and Meunier. Their back line looks like they have a mistake in them with Faes, Castagne, De Cuyper, and Debast.

0.5 Points on Over 2.5 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 1.88 with bet365

Austria v France

Austria were our dark horse selection pre-tournament at 80/1 , and I think they could cause France problems in their opening match. Austria beat Germany 2-0 in a friendly back in March, holding them to just 0.60 expected goals. They also drew with Belgium 1-1 and lost 3-2 but outplayed them 2.01-1.20 on xG. France have only won two of their last five matches, which came against Canada, Luxembourg, Chile, Germany, and Greece. They've only won one of their last eight away from home by two goals or more and drew 1-1 in Austria during the Nations League in 2022.

0.5 Points on Austria +1 Asian Handicap Best price available at 1.86 with bet365

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