Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Euro 2024 Best Bets for Monday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF2:30 pM 01 july 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Monday's Best Bets

France v Belgium

Belgium have been incredibly unlucky going forward so far this tournament. They've scored just two goals from 4.20 expected and Lukaku has had three goals wiped off by VAR. If they had gone in, I think we'd be getting a 2.5 goal line. If you look at France's recent results against elite opposition, they've seen over 2.5 land in three of five - Germany 0-2 and 1-2 in friendlies and the Netherlands 0-0, 4-0, and 2-1. France have conceded against Australia, Tunisia, Poland, and Denmark at the World Cup. I'm not entirely sold on either defence, with 37-year-old Jan Vertonghen and Wout Faes up against the speed of Mbappe and Thuram.

1 Point on Over 2.25 Asian Goal Line Best price available at 1.94 with bet365

Castagne Foul

This looks ok pricing based on his average, but when you dig into the matchup and opposition quality, I think there is value in this price. Castagne will be up against Theo Hernandez, France's top foul earner. He's drawn two fouls in all three Euro 2024 games, drew one or more in six of eight qualifiers and drew two or more in four. Castagne committed a foul in both qualifying games against Austria, a friendly with England, and his only blank against elite opposition coming against Germany in a friendly.

1 Point on Castagne 1+ Foul Best price available 10/11 with Paddy Power, 10/11 with Betfair or 4/6 with bet365

Portugal v Slovenia

Slovenia beat a rotated Portugal side 2-0 in a friendly back in March. They've lost just twice in their last 20 games, once by two or more goals, which came against Finland in a game where they won the xG battle 1.55-1.39. Portugal stormed through qualifying but have lost three of their last six. Roberto Martinez keeps changing personnel and tactics, which may be causing this disruption. They've used five different formations in their last five matches, and I don't trust that he has a grip on his squad. We saw what he did with Belgium's golden generation, so I'm happy to fade his side to win by two or more goals.

1 Point on Slovakia +1.5 Asian Handicap Best price available at 1.85 with bet365

Leao Shots

Everything in this Portugal side mainly goes through Ronaldo, and Fernandes. Leao has had exactly one shot or less in nine of his ten competitive starts for Portugal. In his tenth where he had three shots, Ronaldo didn't start. Leao has also been subbed at 46, 63, 66, 65, 76, and 63 in his last six competitive starts for Portugal.

I will track this at 2.5 but wouldn't put you off backing under 1.5 at Kambi books - BetMGM, Unibet, BetUK, etc.

1.5 Points on Rafael Leao Under 2.5 Shots Best price available at 8/15 with bet365

Cerin Shots

We backed this against England and I think it's good value again.

Cerin isn't a high-volume shooter, but he's consistent. He's had a shot in all three Euro 2024 games so far and in six of ten in qualifying. He also managed a shot in Slovenia's friendly against Portugal.

If Portugal go 1-0 up, which is likely given they are -1.5 favourites in the Asian Handicap market. I then expect Slovenia to have to push and their shot volume increase.

1 Point on Adam Cerin Over 0.5 Shots Best price available at 11/8 with bet365

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