Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Euro 2024 Best Bets for Saturday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF12:40 PM 04 JULY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Saturday's Best Bets

England v Switzerland

We backed Mainoo to have a shot in England's last game, and he obliged with two shots. This means he's had a shot in all three starts under Southgate. He's still not being priced correctly against Switzerland. Rice is priced up at 1/2 and we can back Mainoo at 5/6, which I think is value.

1 Point on Kobbie Mainoo Over 0.5 Shots Best price available at 5/6 with bet365

Konsa is expected to start in a back five for England due to Guehi's suspension. This will be his first competitive start for the Three Lions and just his fourth start in an England shirt. Konsa is used to playing in a back four at club level for Aston Villa, so there will be some unfamiliar situations for him to defend. He's also committed three fouls in three starts (0, 1, and 2 foul counts). Embolo is expected to start upfront for Switzerland, who has drawn seven fouls at the Euros so far in two starts and cameos of 30 and 16 minutes. He didn't play during qualifying, but at the 2022 World Cup, he drew 3, 5, 3, and 1 fouls. We can bet 11/10 at bet365 for just one foul committed, which is value in my opinion.

1 Point on Ezri Konsa 1+ Foul Comitted Best price available at 11/10 with bet365

His fouls drawn count reads 2, 2, 2, 1 at the Euros. He was fouled 3 times in 45 minutes in a friendly against Austria and has drawn a foul in both other starts in friendlies.

1 Point on Michel Aebischer To Be Fouled 1+ Times Best price available 8/11 with Paddy Power, and 8/11 with Betfair

Netherlands v Turkey

Turkey's games have all gone over 2.5 at the Euros and have been chaotic. They'll welcome back Çalhanoglu but will be without key defensive pieces in Kökçü, Yüksek, and Demiral, who are all suspended. Holland have seen over 2.5 lands in three of their four games in Germany; the bore draw against France was the only one that went under. The Netherlands averaged 2.90 xG per game in qualifying, and Turkey 2.77. Both sides have plenty of attacking threats but are prone to mistakes at the back.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 4/5 with bet365

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