Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Euro 2024 Best Bets for Tuesday

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Tuesday's Best Bets

Romania v Netherlands

The Netherlands have won just one game by more than one goal under Ronald Koeman, which came against Gibraltar. There is no denying the amount of talent in this Dutch squad, but they've failed to win by big score lines. They beat Ireland and Greece by a single goal in qualifying, which carried over to Germany with their 2-1 win over Poland. Much like Roberto Martinez at Portugal, I don't think Koeman knows his strongest team or formation. He's used three different setups in his last six matches and four in eight qualifying matches. He's also used three different groups of attacking players, so I'm happy to bet against them winning by multiple goals. Romania have been incredibly well supported in each of their three games so far, making it feel like a home game. 

1 Point on Romania +1.25 Asian Handicap Best price available at 1.94 with bet365

Player bets for this game will be released in the free tips Telegram after team news is announced due to the Bancu suspension.

Austria v Turkey

This game should be the most entertaining of the Round of 16. You're all aware of Austria's intense, high-pressing style under Ralf Rangnick, and Turkey's games have been absolute chaos so far this tournament, with over 2.5 winning in all three games. Austria averaged 2.83 xG per game in qualifying, and Turkey 2.77. Austria also beat Turkey 6-1 in a warmup friendly, where they created 2.80 xG and 3.66 total xG. Turkey will miss Çalhanoglu and centreback Akaydin, who has been one of their best players this tournament.

1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

Austria Fouls

Austria have been foul machine's so far this tournament, with foul counts of 16, 15, and 18. They also hit 15 fouls in their friendly with Turkey back in March. They have cleared 15 fouls or more in each of their last six games, and with the stakes high on Tuesday night, I expect them to get stuck in once more.

1 Point on Austria 15+ Fouls Best price available 11/8 with Paddy Power, and 11/8 with Betfair

Güler Shots

Çalhanoglu's absence in attack will be a big miss for Turkey, and the most likely beneficiary is Güler. Çalhanoglu has taken 11 free kicks and corners so far at Euro 2024; Güler is second behind him with 8. Güler has hit the target in one of two starts, which was a wondergoal in their first game against Czechia. He's hit the target in four of his last six appearances, which includes the friendly against Austria. Güler had two shots in 20 minutes when Çalhanoglu was substituted in a friendly against Poland, a match where he hit the target twice after coming on as a substitute at halftime. This match has the potential to be very open and high-scoring, with plenty of free kicks, and Güler has the potential to hit the target multiple times.

1 Point on Arda Güler Over 0.5 Shots On Target Best price available at 10/11 with bet365

0.5 Points on Arda Güler Over 1.5 Shots On Target Best price available at 5/1 with bet365

0.25 Points on Arda Güler Over 2.5 Shots On Target Best price available at 20/1 with bet365

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