Free Football Betting Tips & Predictions: Euro 2024 Best Bets for Tuesday

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF09:23 AM 09 JULY 2024

Our best bets column is where you can find our football expert's best value bets of the day. A value bet is where the betting odds on offer are higher than they should be, which is how you win over the long term in any form of betting.

A big part of finding value is using our Euro 2024 expected goals model data, which assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance. This data, tactical analysis, and individual player matchups are where we find value and gain an edge over the bookmakers.

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Tuesday's Best Bets

Spain v France

Spain have looked the best side at the Euros so far this tournament. They cruised through the group of death finishing with a perfect 9 points. They also top the charts for the most expected goals created in the competition at 10.20.

They do have some injury and suspension problems heading into this semi-final with France though. They'll be without Pedri and two of their starting back four, Le Normand and Carvajal.

38-year-old Jesus Navas is expected to occupy the right-back position against Mbappe and Theo Hernandez.

Although France haven't scored from open play, they sit fourth in expected goals created at 7.90. They should have some success against a weakened Spanish backline. Spain were outshot by both Germany and Croatia earlier this tournament and although they beat Croatia 3-0, they gave up 2.38 expected goals.

I think there is some value in betting over 2.0 goal line at 1/1 with bet365. France have too much attacking quality to keep underperforming their expected goals this much and a weakened Spanish defence provides a perfect opportunity

1 Point on Over 2.0 Goal Line Best price available at 1/1 with bet365

I also like Dani Olmo to have a shot on target. He will be replacing Pedri in midfield and has hit the target in seven of his last eight starts for Spain. He is a high-volume shooter with 14 shots in four appearances at the Euros, even though he started just one game. Adding Olmo to have two shots, including one on target gets us an even money bet.

1 Point on Dani Olmo 2+ shots & 1+ shot on target Best price available at 1/1 with bet365

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