Inter Milan vs Atletico Madrid Predictions & Betting Tips

Inter have been head and shoulders above everyone else in Serie A this season. According to my expected goals model data they have been over 0.50 xG per 90, better than second-place Juventus, which is a huge difference. They've won ten of twelve at home, beaten four of the top seven and won two of three in the Champions League group stages. Atletico have struggled on their travels in La Liga with six losses from twelve. If you focus on top-half opposition, they've lost five and drawn two. They also drew away at Lazio and Celtic in the group stages and beat Feyenoord 3-1. A big problem for them has been keeping the ball out of their own net. This side differs from the defensive Atletico side we're used to seeing. They've conceded over 1.50 expected goals per game away in La Liga. Having a sub-par defence isn't what you want when facing an Inter side that averages over 2.00 goals per game at home this season. Atletico may also be without Morata, who is a doubt.

1 Point Inter Milan Win Best price available at 8/11 with bet365

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free and covers over ten leagues. My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

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