Porto vs Arsenal Predictions & Betting Tips

A road favourite in the first round of a knockout tie isn't the spot I like backing, but there is a bit of value on Arsenal. Porto played in a very weak group, and Antwerp had a 50th-minute red card. In their only test against Barcelona, they lost 1-0 and created 0.94 expected goals. Arsenal won just one of three away from home in the group stages, but they conceded two off 0.88 expected against Lens, and a draw was a fair result against PSV. The market is pricing Porto about the same as a mid-table Premier League club. Well, the Gunners just beat West Ham 6-0 away and have won five straight. Their underlying numbers were good in both games they lost against Fulham and Arsenal. Away at Fulham, they created 2.16 expected goals and allowed 1.47. Porto sit third in the league and have already lost to Porto twice (once in the Super Cup) and Sporting once. This should be a comfortable Gunners win; they've won seven of eight away from home against sides in the bottom half of the Premier League, keeping five clean sheets.

0.50 Points on Arsenal Win Best price available at 1.67 with bet365

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free and covers over ten leagues. My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

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