Premier League Predictions 2024/25: Outright betting tips & 1-20 table predictions

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF11:01 AM 15 AUG 2024

The Premier League returns this weekend, so let's run through some outright predictions and a prediction of where we think every team will finish!

Outright Bets

▪️ Newcastle Top 4 - 9/4
▪️ Brighton Top Half - 1/1
▪️ Brighton Top 6 - 6/5
▪️ Crystal Palace Top Half - 7/5
▪️ Everton Bottom at Christmas - 20/1

1-20 Table Predictions

1. Arsenal

Arsenal can benefit from Manchester City's off-field issues and win the league for the first time since the 2003, 2004 season. A relatively quiet summer for the Gunners saw them bring in Caliafori to strengthen a defence that was already the best in the league. They will also have Jurrien Timber back, who was injured in his first game last season. I would like them to bring in a proper striker, as I still don't believe in Havertz's finishing ability. They are still linked with Victor Osimhen, so they may still add a number 9. While I do think they will win the league, the 15/ 8 available in the betting market is a bit short for me to back.

2. Manchester City

On Monday, it was announced that we expect to hear an outcome of the one hundred and fifteen FFP charges before the end of this season. Trials are due to start on September 16th, so it will last most of the season and become a big distraction for Man City all season. It's been a weird summer for Man City with rumours of Ederson and De Bruyne going abroad. They still need to sign a backup to Haaland after selling Alvarez. There are also some on-field signs that City aren't as dominant. They only won 2 of 10 games against the top 6 last season. One was the game at Spurs, in which a victory over City could have handed their North London rivals Arsenal the title. I think they just fall short this season and there are question marks if they get a points deduction. They are just 16 to 1 to get relegated.

3. Liverpool

Arne Slot will take over from Jurgen Klopp and have Champions League football to navigate. Last season, the Reds only had Europa League, so they could afford to rotate more. There are a lot of unknown variables about this Liverpool side, but they were streets ahead of fourth last season. At this stage, it's unclear whether they'll be pulled closer to fourth or become title contenders. They haven't done anything in the transfer window since Zubimendi snubbed them. 3-0 and 2-1 wins over Manchester United and Arsenal, have Liverpool fans very excited for the upcoming season.

4. Newcastle

The Toon Army won't have any European football this season and that will be a major advantage in the league. Newcastle were ravaged by injuries last season but they'll now get a full week to prepare every week. This should suit key players like Isak, who just couldn't stay fit last season. Newcastle had the joint-best defence when they finished fourth two seasons ago. Lloyd Kelly is the only bit of transfer business I like and they are still trying to chase Guehi from Palace, which would be a great addition. Tonali is back from his ban and will feel like a new signing. Newcastle were 5th in the league after January 1st, and they can carry that form into this season.

5. Tottenham

Spurs enter their second season under Ange Postecoglou. They have been very busy over the summer, adding Solanke, Archie Gray, and Lucas Bergvall. They'll now have Europa League football, so squad additions were needed. Spurs were 9th in the league after January 1st, so question marks remain there. Were they found out a bit or was the intensity of the season catching up with the players? James Maddison wasn't the same player after his injury and they'll hope he can get back to his best. Having a proper number 9 can help them challenge for Champions League, but I think they are one or two players short whilst balancing European football.

6. Brighton

Fabian Hürzeler becomes the youngest-ever Premier League manager and you have to trust Tony Bloom's appointment. De Zerbi and Potter were his previous appointments and are both now very highly thought of. Brighton have been very busy in the transfer market this summer, adding Minteh, Wieffer, Osman, Gruda, and Barco in January. No European football will be a major positive for Brighton. The Seagulls finished 9th three seasons ago and 6th two seasons ago, and they regressed last season due to European football and bad injury luck. They look like they're building a squad to challenge for European football and compete in it next season. I think they are being overlooked and will have a very good season

7. Chelsea

One of the most difficult sides to predict. Enzo Maresca takes over at The Bridge, and they've been splashing the cash again this summer. They also have Nkunku and Lavia back fit and both have impressed during pre-season. The Blues were 4th in the league since January and 5th in net expected goals over the last 12 games. They were one of the biggest underperforming teams in terms of expected goals conceded. They conceded 1.66 goals from 1.41 xG per game. They've added Tosin from Fulham and have Fofana and James back fit. I think Chelsea could start slow, which ends up costing them. It feels quite chaotic at the minute with the amount of transfers. Maresca has also admitted the players aren't up to speed with his system, and he's still trying to get the high line out of them that they played under Poch. The talent is there in the Chelsea squad, but is Maresca the right man to get it out of them? If he is, they could be a real dark horse and challenge for top four, especially if they add more defensive depth.

8. Manchester United

The Red Devils are one of the trickier sides to predict this upcoming season. Their underlying numbers were a real concern last season, finishing 14th in net expected goal difference and 17th over the last 12 games. If they hadn't beaten a Man City side that had been out celebrating the league in the FA Cup, I doubt Ten Hag would still be in charge. Dan Ashworth joined as sporting director, and they've made some coaching changes, including adding Van Nistelrooy. They need to be better defensively if they are to climb the table, and they look to have addressed those concerns this summer. De Ligt, Mazraoui, Zirkzee and Yoro have arrived. They will hope Shaw and Martinez can stay fit, but Yoro has already been ruled out for three months. They still look light in central midfield next to Mainoo, but no Champions League should help with rotation. I'm still unconvinced about Ten Hag as a manager and his transfer strategy of recruiting his old Ajax squad. They've looked much better in their last two games against Man City, so maybe that's a sign of things to come.

9. Aston Villa

The expanded Champions League format is obviously the reason for Villa dropping five spots from last season. We saw the effect the Champions League had on Newcastle last season, and now they have to play another 2 games in the new league format. Villa really faded over the second half of last season. They were 6th in the table since January 1st and 15th in net expected goal difference over the last 12 games. Although they've done some business in the transfer window, I think Douglas Luiz is a huge loss. They've added a lot of players, but there's a lot of unproven Premier League talent arriving.

10. Crystal Palace

This prediction is predicated on them keeping Eze. I think they will lose Guehi but he missed 15 games for them last season and they won six, drew four, and lost five. Their win percentage was 41% without him, compared to 28% with him. Palace were 5th in the league table since Oliver Glasner took over and 7th in net xG. Ismail Sarr and Kamada will look to replace Olise's production, and they are trying to get Zaha back at Selhurst Park. This team has real upside under Glasner, especially if they can keep hold of Eze.

11. Bournemouth

Losing your striker who scored 19 goals a week before the season starts isn't ideal prep. However, I think you have to trust Iraola's system. Solanke scored 10 goals in 96 Premier League games before he played under the Spaniard. In his first season under him, he scored 19 in 38 games. They made Enes Ünal a permanent signing following a loan spell from Getafe. The Turkish striker had 4 goal contributions in 319 minutes in the Premier League, so they must be confident he can replace Solanke. The Cherries were also 9th in net expected goal difference last season. Araujo arrives from Barcelona and Huijsen arrives from Juventus to replace Lloyd Kelly and help strengthen a defence that conceded the fifth most goals in the league.

12. West Ham

There's been a lot of buzz about the Hammers this summer with their transfer business, but i'm not as high on them for a few reasons. They finished 17th in net expected goal difference last season and heavily relied on set pieces. 33% of their goals came from set pieces. Lopetegui's record at Wolves doesn't inspire me at 1.30 points per game, which puts you around mid-table in the last two seasons. They conceded the fourth-most goals in the league last season. Emerson and Coufal weren't good, and Kilman was an average centre-back. Wan-Bissaka should provide more defensive stability, but he's played half a season for three seasons. Todibo and Rodriguez look like good signings, but they need even more defensive depth. One injury could unravel everything. Their attacking signings have been fantastic, but it's the other end of the pitch that I'm concerned about.

13. Everton

In thirteenth we have Everton. The Toffees are difficult to predict because of all the off-field antics. This prediction is based on footballing ability alone, but they have already been warned about another points deduction this week. They were deducted 9 points last season and still ended up on 41. They were big expected goals underperformers last season due to their finishing ability. Scoring just 1.05 goals per game from 1.35 expected. Ndiaye will be tasked with helping to overcome that problem. Everton played 15 games without Onana last season. They won seven, drew six, and lost twice. Getting around 50 million for him could be a great piece of business. 20 to 1 for them to be bottom at Christmas seems too big, with another points deduction potentially coming. Everton and Forest's point deductions came after Christmas last season, so it may take a while to sort out Leicester's.

14. Fulham

The Cottagers lost Tosin and Palhinha this summer, which will hurt them defensively. They played seven games without Palhinha last season. They won four and drew three. They did see over 2.5 goals in six out of the seven, so they need to add more defensive replacements. Emile Smith-Rowe joins from Arsenal and will add to an array of attacking options for Marco Silva. They were 10th in net expected goal difference last season and 8th over the last 12 games. Fulham could be a side that could outrun this prediction if they add some defensive quality.

15. Brentford

The Bees played half a season with Ivan Toney, and during that spell, they were 13th. Their new signing Igor Thiago is already out for most of 2024. If Toney does go, I expect their recruitment to do a good job of replacing him. Kevin Schade has been plagued by injuries since joining but has looked sharp in preseason with three goals. Fabio Carvalho also joined earlier this week. I don't think they'll be in trouble if Toney leaves and they replace him, but equally, I don't see them challenging for top half.

16. Nottingham Forest

Forest were 17th in the league table since Nuno took over, and they have had their off-field issues. They were 9th in net expected goal difference over the last 12 games, so the underlying metrics are encouraging. They conceded the sixth most goals in the league last season, but they have addressed this in the summer with some good business. They did only win 4 games home and away against sides in the bottom half last season, two of which were against Sheffield United. I think they have too much attacking quality to go down with a forward line of Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, and Chris Wood.

17. Wolves

Wolves are a side I am concerned about, and I can easily see them getting dragged into a relegation scrap. They finished 19th in net expected goal difference over the last 12 games. They were also 16th in the league since January 1st, compared to 11th over the first half of the season. Neto and Kilman have left, leaving 34-year-old Craig Dawson as one of four centre-backs at the club. Wolves were hot in the market for a dark horse relegation side last season, but O'Neill drastically changed his style from his days at Bournemouth. The switch in styles may have caught a few teams out over the first half of the season, and I'm wondering if he's been found out. I think there are a few worse teams than Wolves, so they may just survive.

18. Southampton

It feels like a shame to predict all three relegated teams to go back down but I don't think any of them are solid enough defensively to stay up. Southampton beat Leeds three times last season, who were the best side in the Championship. They were second in net expected goal difference against the top 6 in the Championship, so they should be the best-performing newcomer. They've added Charlie Taylor and Sugawara to help defensively and Brereton Diaz scored six in 14 for Sheffield United at the end of last season. Southampton were 1st in xG created from set pieces last season, so they may have to rely on them to stay up.

19. Leicester

In nineteenth, we have Leicester. Leicester are already facing a points deduction, which could be as hefty as sixteen points apparently. I don't think it will make a difference though. They sold their best player in Dewsbury-Hall and lost their manager before the season started. Steve Cooper's record in the Premier League is atrocious at zero point nine one points per game. I think they are as good as gone before a ball is even kicked.

20. Ipswich

Ipswich are a nice story coming off a double promotion but I think they struggle this season. McKenna is obviously very highly thought of as a manager but they haven't really added any Premier League talent to the squad this summer. Their underlying numbers are a concern after overperforming their expected points total by 20 last season. They were only 6th in net expected goal difference against the top 6 in the Championship. McKenna's side only won two of 10 games against the top 6 in the Championship last season, and in those two wins, they lost the expected goal battle. If there weren't so many question marks over points deductions, i'd say they were a great bet to finish rock bottom at 10/11.