Premier League Predictions: Betting tips for every game week 4 matchup

BY SOCCERBASE STAFF3:32 PM 31 AUG 2023

Sunday

Crystal Palace vs Wolves

It's another game where I'm looking into the card market to find value. Wolves have been the most carded team in the Premier League this season, averaging 4.33 cards per game and their matches 8.00. Robert Jones takes charge. He was the man in the middle for their most recent encounter in April, where he dished out nine yellows.

Verdict: Over 5.5 cards at 10/11 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 2/5

Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Liverpool won the corner count 6-0 at Villa Park and 9-3 at home last season. Villa play on the counterattack away from home, which is reflected in their overall corner count numbers. They averaged just 3.79 corners for on the road while allowing 6.16 against. Liverpool were fifth for corners at home last season. This bet would have won in five of their six away matches against the top six last season.

Verdict: Liverpool -2.5 Corner Handicap at 4/5 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Arsenal vs Man United

Man United lost away from home to every top-seven team last season. They picked up just two points away from home against top-half teams and conceded two or more goals in eight. They'll be missing Varane and Shaw for this game. Arsenal will also welcome the return of Gabriel Jesus, which could spell trouble for United's defence.

Verdict: Arsenal win at 4/5 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 4/5

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Friday

Luton vs. West Ham

West Ham only won three games away from home last season. This game is an entirely different dynamic from what they've experienced in the previous two games. They go from being able to play on the counterattack against possession-based teams like Brighton and Chelsea to having to break down Luton's low block defence in their first Premier League home game. It was only a few weeks ago since West Ham drew 1-1 away at Bournemouth, and the Cherries looked like the better team. This is also a significant downgrade in opposition for Luton, who have faced Brighton and Chelsea.

Verdict: Luton +0.5 Asian Handicap at 21/20 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Saturday

Sheffield United vs Everton

A game I want nothing to do with in the full-time result or total goal markets. Any scoreline is possible, so I will look elsewhere for value. Sheffield United have had 3, 3, 4 bookings in three games. Everton have had 0, 4 and 3. Referee Andrew Madley has dished out 8 and 12 (red card counts as 2) in his two Premier League games this season. He also dished out another red card in his midweek Europa Conference League game. This is a crucial game for both teams early in the season, and I expect tempers to flare, which is what we want with a card-happy referee.

Verdict: Over 5 Asian Cards at 20/21 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

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Brentford vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth could be much better than the market is giving them credit for. I believe in Iraola as a manager. They have just had a difficult start playing what are two excellent sides, Spurs and Liverpool. I will take a more cautious approach and look at both teams to score. Bournemouth created over one expected goal against Liverpool and Spurs. Hence, they will likely find the back of the net against the Bees. Brentford have scored in all three games this season and 18 out of 20 home games last season.

Verdict: Both teams to score at 7/10 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Burnley vs Tottenham

Burnley have struggled to transition their style of play to the Premier League. They are trying to play possession-based football at a higher level, which is catching them out. Spurs are an excellent pressing team under Ange. They are 4th in the Premier League in passes per defensive action. This will go the same way as Burnley's opening two games.

Verdict: Tottenhm win and over 2.5 goals at 15/8 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest continued conceding two or more away from home against top-half teams last week. That's now 10 of their previous 11. Chelsea's Levi Colwill limped off in the Carabao Cup, so they may not have him this weekend even if Pochettino said he isn't injured. He said the same thing about Reece James. I can see goals in this one, a repeat of the four goals we saw last season in the 2-2 at The Bridge.

Verdict: Over 3 Goal Line at 21/20 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 3/5

Man City vs Fulham

Fulham didn't lose a single away game by more than two goals last season, and they only lost one game by exactly two goals. They have continued that theme this season with a 2-2 draw away at Arsenal and a 1-0 victory away at Everton. It doesn't fill me with confidence going up against the Champions, but the stats don't lie. They lost 2-1 to them on both occasions last season.

Verdict: Fulham +2.25 Asian Handicap at 17/20 with bet365

Confidence Rating: 2/5