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PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions & Betting Tips

Borussia Dortmund's defensive numbers away from home against good opposition are a big concern. In their six away games against three of the top six in Germany and three Champions League group games, they conceded 13.38 expected goals. They are winless in the league but managed to beat Milan and Newcastle. PSV created 1.69 xG at home to Arsenal in the group stages, 2.56 against Sevilla, and 1.30 against Lens. They put five past Ajax at home, but that was when Ajax went through a tough period. They've only faced the other three top teams away and scored 2, 3, and 4. Both teams to score and over 2.5 is worth a small bet here. Reducing stakes because it's the first leg of a knockout match, and things tend to be a bit tighter, but this has the potential to be high-scoring.

0.50 Points on Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals Best price available at 4/5 with bet365

My expected goals model data is accessible via this link for free and covers over ten leagues. My model assigns every attack an xG value instead of just counting shots. This is a more accurate method of measuring expected goals and gives a better view of team performance.

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